Chris Reed has a must read article in the City Journal pointing out some of the extreme revenue assumptions
made by the California High-Speed Rail Authority. For example, back in
2008, the rail authority claimed that once the L.A. to San Francisco line was
complete that ridership would be a whopping 117 million passengers a year.
Currently, that projection has now dropped to 44 million passengers per
year. But even under this lower estimate "44 million passengers
would be 50 percent higher than the number of people Amtrak caries to and from more than 500 stations in 46 states and three Canadian provinces each year." So where did this estimate come from? Incredibly, it was premised
on future estimated gas prices of $40 per gallon. In addition, the
public-opinion polls that were used to gauge the public's interest and
potential ridership were questionable as 96% of those polled were already train
riders who would be likely to support a high-speed rail.
